BBA Data Debrief – October ABCI Special Edition
Written by: Tatianna Turrentine-Long
We’re back with another Birmingham Business Alliance (BBA) Data Debrief, and this edition takes a different angle. The recent government shutdown—now resolved—limited access to updated labor market data. Rather than skip a briefing, we’re using this opportunity to spotlight the Alabama Business Confidence Index (ABCI) and its outlook for Q4 2025.
The ABCI is a quarterly report that measures statewide business sentiment based on key indicators that shape executive decision-making, including expectations for the U.S. economy. This report is produced in partnership between the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) at The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Business and the Birmingham Business Alliance.
To help make sense of the numbers, BBA Market Intelligence Manager Tatianna Turrentine-Long breaks down what the ABCI measures, how Alabama’s outlook compares with peer metros, and what these projections mean for our regional economy.
The ABCI is a measurement that projects “economic expectations” for the preceding quarter, which are based on data gathered from businesses in the state of Alabama. CBER distributes a survey every quarter to local businesses, and the data is analyzed to produce a collective index score.
The index is calculated using six indicators which collectively result to an overall index score: Alabama Economy, US Economy, Industry Sales, Industry Profits, Industry Hiring, and Industry Capital Expenditures. If the business confidence index is above 50, it indicates confidence (moderate to strong) in business expectations for the upcoming quarter or an “expansionary outlook”. If the business confidence indexes is below 50, this indicates there is a hesitant outlook for economic expectations or a “contractionary outlook.” This is measured by the CBER for the state and the 5 largest metro areas in the state: Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, and Tuscaloosa.
Within the report, there is also an industry component index that breaks down expected economic forecasts made by businesses by large industry groups: Transportation/Information/Utilities, Professional/Scientific/Technical Services, Healthcare/Social Assistance Services, Wholesale Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Construction, Retail Trade, Manufacturing. This index specifically focuses on all industry sales, capital expenditures, hiring, and profits.
In-State and Regional Comparison: For Q4 of 2025, the overall ABCI is 55.1, which is a 3.6 improvement from the previous quarter. According to the report, this is indicated as a “moderately confident expansionary index,” signaling a positive outlook from businesses overall. The breakdown of the score by the six key indicators are the following:
- Alabama Economy: 55.7
- US Economy: 50.9
- Industry Sales: 60.0
- Industry Profits: 55.5
- Industry Hiring: 53.4
- Industry Capital Expenditures: 55.3
The report also states there are expansionary forecasts across the 5 largest metros in the state, with Mobile as the leading metro area with the highest forecasted outlook:
- Birmingham: 53.6
- Huntsville: 55.5
- Mobile: 57.0
- Montgomery: 54.9
- Tuscaloosa: 54.0
Across all six indicators, nearly all metros projected an expansionary outlook for Q4 2025:
| Statewide | Birmingham | Huntsville | Mobile | Montgomery | Tuscaloosa | |
| ABCI | 55.1 | 53.6 | 55.5 | 57.0 | 54.9 | 54.0 |
| AL Economy | 55.7 | 54.3 | 55.0 | 60.9 | 54.4 | 54.0 |
| US Economy | 50.9 | 43.5 | 50.6 | 57.8 | 51.5 | 51.0 |
| Industry Sales | 60.0 | 59.8 | 64.4 | 59.4 | 52.9 | 59.0 |
| Industry Profits | 55.5 | 55.4 | 56.9 | 57.8 | 54.4 | 52.0 |
| Industry Hiring | 53.4 | 50.0 | 54.4 | 50.0 | 55.9 | 55.0 |
| Industry Capital Expenditures | 55.3 | 58.7 | 51.9 | 56.2 | 60.3 | 53.0 |
Industry Comparison: Across all industry groups, there is a projected positive forecast for growth, with Transportation/Information/Utilities having the highest projection at 65.6 – a 21.1 improvement from Q3.
Industry sales appear to have the highest projected expansionary indexes across all industries, with 70.8 as the highest index for the Transportation/Information/Utilities industry sector. Companies within the manufacturing industry sector are projecting a slight expansionary outlook with the lowest overall industry index of 50.4, a 53.1 index for sales, 48.4 index for profits, 48.4 index for hiring, and 51.6 for capital expenditures.
| Industry Index | Change from Q3 | Sales | Profits | Hiring | Capital Expenditures | |
| Transportation/Information/Utilities | 65.6 | 21.1 | 70.8 | 66.7 | 58.3 | 66.7 |
| Professional/Scientific/Technical Services | 57.8 | 5.2 | 62.0 | 60.0 | 53.0 | 56.0 |
| Healthcare/Social Assistance Services | 57.4 | 3.8 | 65.9 | 59.1 | 50.0 | 54.5 |
| Wholesale Trade | 57.3 | 0.2 | 66.7 | 54.2 | 50.0 | 58.3 |
| All Other Services | 56.9 | 5.2 | 58.3 | 54.6 | 56.5 | 58.3 |
| Construction | 52.5 | -3.8 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 |
| Retail Trade | 51.8 | 6.6 | 53.6 | 50.0 | 57.1 | 46.4 |
| Manufacturing | 50.4 | 1.2 | 53.1 | 48.4 | 48.4 | 51.6 |
In conclusion, state and regional businesses feel confident about the economy and workforce and expect growth across the largest regions and all industry groups. ABCI is a great resource for economic developers and other businesses to fully understand how businesses feel about our regional economy and support businesses by providing more opportunities to the state.
If you know a business who has not participated in the ABCI report or if you are interested in submitting data for your business, you can fill out the survey for Q1 2026, which will be open December 1-15, 2025.